Democratic
Callie Barr
Lawyer and nominee for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.5M
- From individuals
- $1.2M
- Spent
- $788.8K
- Cash on hand
- $768.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Michigan › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan's 1st District
Bergman is very likely to win: Bergman wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Barr (D)
4%
chance of winning
Bergman (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+12.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bergman is very likely to win: Bergman wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Barr (D)
5%
chance of winning
Bergman (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+15.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Jack Bergman
Incumbent U.S. representative (2017–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.3M
- From individuals
- $611.3K
- Spent
- $1.9M
- Cash on hand
- $563.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.15 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.84 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.84 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 783,579
- People per km²
- 5
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 65%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
477,185 votes · R+21.9✓ Jack Bergman (R)59.2%
Callie Barr (D)37.9%
Liz Hakola (WCP)1.8%
Andrew Gale (L)1.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
478,540 two-party votes · R+21.5 · R+20.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.8%
Kamala Harris (D)39.2%
2022
396,273 votes · R+23.2✓ Jack Bergman (R)59.6%
Bob Lorinser (D)37.1%
Liz Hakola (WCP)1.4%
Andrew Gale (L)1.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
416,220 votes · R+25.2✓ Jack Bergman (R)61.6%
Dana Ferguson (D)36.8%
Ben Boren (L)1.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
457,712 two-party votes · R+20.1 · R+24.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.0%
Joe Biden (D)40.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
332,497 votes · R+12.6✓ Jack Bergman (R)56.3%
Matthew W Morgan (D)43.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
360,271 votes · R+15.6✓ Jack Bergman (R)54.9%
Lon Johnson (D)40.1%
Diane Bostow (L)3.7%
Ellis Boal (G)1.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
379,217 two-party votes · R+24.6 · R+26.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.7%