Wisconsin › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Wisconsin's 7th District

Alfonso is clearly favored to win: Alfonso wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.

Clark (D)

chance of winning

Alfonso (R)

95%

Average margin: R+11.7
80% of outcomes: R+21 to R+3
Partisan lean: R+22
Polls: No pollsmodel only

Alfonso is very likely to win: Alfonso wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.

Clark (D)

chance of winning

Alfonso (R)

95%

Average margin: R+15.7
80% of outcomes: R+27 to R+4
Partisan lean: R+22
Polls: No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Fred Clark

Former state representative from the 81st district (2009–2015) and nominee for Wisconsin's 14th Senate district in 2011

Experience: State legislature

Raised: $725.4K
From individuals: $704.5K
Spent: $502.5K
Cash on hand: $222.8K

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

Republican

Michael Alfonso

Media producer and son-in-law of Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy

Experience: No elected office

Raised: $1.7M
From individuals: $1.3M
Spent: $1.2M
Cash on hand: $540.4K

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment: D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Swing reaching this office: 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
Midwest adjustment: +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs

Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)	0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)	0.13
Elected-experience edge	0.67
First-term incumbent	0
Seat's last result vs. expectation	-2.44
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation	0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.

The district

Lean R+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population: 730,822
People per km²: 11
Adults with a B.A.+: 26%
White, no degree: 68%of adults

White 90%
Hispanic 3%
Black 1%
Asian 2%
Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

430,384 votes · R+27.2

✓ Thomas P. Tiffany (R)63.6%

Kyle Kilbourn (D)36.4%

2024 President Vote in this district

434,458 two-party votes · R+22.8 · R+21.3 vs. the nation

✓ Donald Trump (R)61.4%

Kamala Harris (D)38.6%

2022

338,101 votes · R+23.8

✓ Thomas P Tiffany (R)61.9%

Richard Dick Ausman (D)38.1%

2020 Earlier district lines

415,007 votes · R+21.5

✓ Thomas P Tiffany (R)60.7%

Tricia Zunker (D)39.2%

2020 President Vote in this district

417,004 two-party votes · R+20.3 · R+24.8 vs. the nation

✓ Donald Trump (R)60.1%

Joe Biden (D)39.9%

2020 specialEarlier district lines

191,638 votes · R+14.3

✓ Tiffany, Tom (R)57.1%

Zunker, Tricia (D)42.9%

2018 Earlier district lines

322,787 votes · R+21.9

✓ Sean P Duffy (R)60.1%

Margaret Engebretson (D)38.5%

Ken Driessen (I)1.4%

2016 President Vote in this district

356,187 two-party votes · R+21.5 · R+23.7 vs. the nation

✓ Donald Trump (R)60.8%

Hillary Clinton (D)39.2%

Also on the ballot in Wisconsin

GovernorDavid CrowleyTom Tiffany72%Dem.71%Dem.

Neighboring districts

WI-3Rebecca CookeDerrick Van OrdenFlip riskFlip risk57%Dem.50%Dem. WI-8Rick CrossonTony Wied87%Rep.85%Rep.