Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut's 1st District
FusionBronin is very likely to win: Bronin wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bronin (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Chai (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+39.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+30 to D+48
- Partisan lean
- D+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bronin is very likely to win: Bronin wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bronin (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Chai (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+33.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+22 to D+45
- Partisan lean
- D+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Luke Bronin
Former mayor of Hartford (2016–2024)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $3.7M
- From individuals
- $3.6M
- Spent
- $3.3M
- Cash on hand
- $357.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Amy Chai
Doctor and Independent Party candidate for Connecticut's 3rd congressional district in 2022
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $20.8K
- From individuals
- $4.1K
- Spent
- $16.2K
- Cash on hand
- $344
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- +4.6How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 4.61 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 7.4 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+24: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 726,335
- People per km²
- 415
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 33%of adults
- White 56%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 14%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
330,482 votes · D+28.9✓ John B. Larson (D)63.1%
Jim Griffin (R)34.8%
Mary L. Sanders (G)2.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
336,746 two-party votes · D+22.6 · D+24.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)61.3%
Donald Trump (R)38.7%
2022
243,913 votes · D+24.1✓ John B Larson (D)61.3%
Larry Lazor (R)37.5%
Mary L Sanders (G)1.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
349,237 votes · D+29.2✓ John B Larson (D)63.8%
Mary Fay (R)35.0%
Thomas E McCormick (G)1.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
354,474 two-party votes · D+28.5 · D+23.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)64.2%
Donald Trump (R)35.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
274,140 votes · D+29.2✓ John B Larson (D)63.9%
Jennifer T Nye (R)35.0%
Thomas McCormick (G)1.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
312,925 votes · D+31.0✓ John B Larson (D)64.1%
Mathhew M Corey (R)33.8%
S Michael Derosa (G)2.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
312,735 two-party votes · D+24.3 · D+22.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)62.2%
Donald Trump (R)37.8%