DemocraticIncumbent
Joyce Beatty
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.4M
- From individuals
- $383.5K
- Spent
- $1.4M
- Cash on hand
- $2.8M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Ohio › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio's 3rd District
Beatty is very likely to win: Beatty wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Beatty (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Dulaney (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+50.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+42 to D+60
- Partisan lean
- D+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Beatty is very likely to win: Beatty wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Beatty (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Dulaney (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+49.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+38 to D+62
- Partisan lean
- D+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Cleophus Dulaney
Candidate for this district in 2020
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.4 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+42: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 785,699
- People per km²
- 1,372
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 45%
- White, no degree
- 26%of adults
- White 54%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 28%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
342,987 votes · D+41.5✓ Joyce Beatty (D)70.7%
Michael Young (R)29.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
353,515 two-party votes · D+40.7 · D+42.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)70.3%
Donald Trump (R)29.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
258,797 votes · D+40.9✓ Joyce Beatty (D)70.5%
Lee R Stahley (R)29.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
321,092 votes · D+41.7✓ Joyce Beatty (D)70.8%
Mark F Richardson (R)29.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
376,097 two-party votes · D+44.4 · D+39.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)72.2%
Donald Trump (R)27.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
246,615 votes · D+47.3✓ Joyce Beatty (D)73.6%
Jim Burgess (R)26.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
291,351 votes · D+37.1✓ Joyce Beatty (D)68.6%
John Adams (R)31.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
340,670 two-party votes · D+40.2 · D+38.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)70.1%
Donald Trump (R)29.9%