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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

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Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Texas's 10th District

Gober is very likely to win: Gober wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.

Rourk (D)
2%
chance of winning
Gober (R)
98%
Average margin
R+12.3
80% of outcomes
R+20 to R+5
Partisan lean
R+20
Polls
1in our database

Gober is very likely to win: Gober wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.

Rourk (D)
4%
chance of winning
Gober (R)
96%
Average margin
R+13.1
80% of outcomes
R+22 to R+5
Partisan lean
R+20
Polls
1in our database

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

R+12.3R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30
R+13.1R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Rourk 2%Gober 98%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Rourk 4%Gober 96%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Caitlin Rourk

Marketing employee (running in the 10th district)

Experience
No elected office
Raised
$531K
From individuals
$493.1K
Spent
$418.9K
Cash on hand
$112.1K

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career

Republican

Chris Gober

Political-law attorney and former director and chief lawyer of Elon Musk's America PAC

Experience
No elected office
Raised
$3M
From individuals
$745.7K
Spent
$2.8M
Cash on hand
$215.6K

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Swing reaching this office
78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
Southwest adjustment
−1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 78% of the environment andthe Southwest adjustmentR+13.2Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+11.6Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Texas and look-alikeplacesR+11.1Polling average1 poll, latest Sep 22R+13.7Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+12.3Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+13.1

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-0.49
Elected-experience edge0
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation0
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+10EvenD+10Avg. R+13.7Sep 22Nov 3
All 1 polls
PollsterDatesSampleRourkGoberMarginAdjusted
Change Research for Rourk's campaignD-sponsoredSep 18–Sep 22613 LV4148R+7R+13.7

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 22, 2026.

The district

Lean R+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+20.1R+22.4 vs. nation2020 presidentR+13.6R+18.2 vs. nation2024 presidentR+22.6R+21.1 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
790,700
People per km²
34
Adults with a B.A.+
43%
White, no degree
33%of adults
  • White 59%
  • Hispanic 22%
  • Black 9%
  • Asian 6%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024 Earlier district lines

347,813 votes · R+30.3
✓ Michael T. McCaul (R)63.6%
Theresa Boisseau (D)34.0%
Jeff Miller (L)2.4%

2024 President Vote in this district

350,422 two-party votes · R+22.6 · R+21.1 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)61.3%
Kamala Harris (D)38.7%

2022 Earlier district lines

252,146 votes · R+29.7
✓ Michael T McCaul (R)63.3%
Linda Nuno (D)34.3%
Bill Kelsey (L)2.4%

2020 Earlier district lines

413,821 votes · R+7.3
✓ Michael T McCaul (R)52.5%
Mike Siegel (D)45.3%
Roy Eriksen (L)2.2%

2020 President Vote in this district

357,745 two-party votes · R+13.6 · R+18.2 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)56.8%
Joe Biden (D)43.2%

2018 Earlier district lines

307,826 votes · R+4.4
✓ Michael T McCaul (R)51.1%
Mike Siegel (D)46.8%
Mike Ryan (L)2.2%

2016 Earlier district lines

312,478 votes · R+19.7
✓ Michael T McCaul (R)57.3%
Tawana W Cadien (D)38.4%
Bill Kelsey (L)4.2%

2016 President Vote in this district

279,741 two-party votes · R+20.1 · R+22.4 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)60.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.9%

Also on the ballot in Texas

U.S. SenateJames TalaricoKen PaxtonD flipD flip70%Dem.61%Dem. GovernorGina HinojosaGreg Abbott68%Rep.64%Rep.

Neighboring districts

TX-1Yolanda PrinceNathaniel Moran>99%Rep.>99%Rep. TX-2Shaun FinnieSteve Toth98%Rep.97%Rep. TX-5Chelsey HockettLance Gooden96%Rep.90%Rep. TX-8Laura JonesJessica Hart Steinmann99%Rep.97%Rep. TX-9Leticia GutierrezAlex Mealer91%Rep.84%Rep. TX-11Claire ReynoldsAugust Pfluger>99%Rep.99%Rep. TX-17Casey ShepardPete Sessions97%Rep.92%Rep. TX-21Kristin HookMark Teixeira94%Rep.91%Rep. TX-27Tanya LloydMichael Cloud97%Rep.93%Rep. TX-36Rhonda HartBrian Babin99%Rep.96%Rep. TX-37Greg CasarLauren Peña>99%Dem.>99%Dem.