DemocraticIncumbent
Alma Adams
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $465.2K
- From individuals
- $111.3K
- Spent
- $544.6K
- Cash on hand
- $494K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
North Carolina › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina's 12th District
Adams is very likely to win: Adams wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Adams (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Codiga (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+54.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+46 to D+64
- Partisan lean
- D+48
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Adams is very likely to win: Adams wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Adams (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Codiga (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+56.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+44 to D+69
- Partisan lean
- D+48
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jack Codiga
Financial executive
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $28.7K
- From individuals
- $25.7K
- Spent
- $28.7K
- Cash on hand
- $3
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.61 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+48: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 762,478
- People per km²
- 1,071
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 45%
- White, no degree
- 14%of adults
- White 35%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 37%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
350,767 votes · D+48.0✓ Alma S. Adams (D)74.0%
Addul Ali (R)26.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
346,528 two-party votes · D+47.1 · D+48.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)73.5%
Donald Trump (R)26.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
223,908 votes · D+25.5✓ Alma S Adams (D)62.7%
Tyler Lee (R)37.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
682,946 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Alma S Adams (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
380,182 two-party votes · D+50.5 · D+46.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)75.2%
Donald Trump (R)24.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
279,138 votes · D+46.1✓ Alma Adams (D)73.1%
Paul Wright (R)26.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
349,300 votes · D+34.0✓ Alma S Adams (D)67.0%
Leon Threatt (R)33.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
312,860 two-party votes · D+47.6 · D+45.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)73.8%
Donald Trump (R)26.2%