Democratic
Jessica Killin
Former chief of staff to Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $5M
- From individuals
- $3.7M
- Spent
- $4.3M
- Cash on hand
- $702.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Colorado › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Colorado's 5th District
Crank is favored to win: Crank wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Killin (D)
34%
chance of winning
Crank (R)
66%
- Average margin
- R+2.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- 2in our database
Crank is favored to win: Crank wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Killin (D)
29%
chance of winning
Crank (R)
71%
- Average margin
- R+3.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Jeff Crank
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.8M
- From individuals
- $1.1M
- Spent
- $1.8M
- Cash on hand
- $1M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.46 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.25 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.25 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Killin | Crank | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group for Killin's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 16–Jul 21 | 450 LV | 44 | 45 | R+1 | R+5.9 |
| Global Strategy Group for Killin's campaignD-sponsored | Oct 30–Nov 3 | 450 LV | 40 | 43 | R+3 | R+6.8 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jul 21, 2026.
The district
Lean R+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 736,763
- People per km²
- 193
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 42%
- White, no degree
- 38%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 6%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
362,085 votes · R+14.4✓ Jeff Crank (R)54.7%
River Gassen (D)40.9%
Michael Keith Vance (L)1.8%
Joseph Gaye (I)1.1%
Christopher Mitchell (CST)1.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
365,136 two-party votes · R+9.3 · R+7.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.7%
Kamala Harris (D)45.3%
2022
277,964 votes · R+16.3✓ Doug Lamborn (R)56.0%
David Torres (D)40.3%
Brian Flanagan (L)2.5%
Christopher Mitchell (CST)1.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
432,407 votes · R+21.3✓ Doug Lamborn (R)57.6%
Jillian Freeland (D)37.4%
Ed Duffett (L)3.4%
Marcus Allen Murphy (I)0.9%
Rebecca Keltie (OTH)0.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
359,775 two-party votes · R+10.5 · R+15.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.2%
Joe Biden (D)44.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
322,716 votes · R+18.4✓ Doug Lamborn (R)57.0%
Stephany Rose Spaulding (D)39.3%
Douglas Randall (L)3.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
362,114 votes · R+33.7✓ Doug Lamborn (R)62.3%
Misty Plowright (D)30.8%
Mike McRedmond (L)6.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
283,146 two-party votes · R+24.2 · R+26.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.9%