DemocraticIncumbent
Gabe Amo
Incumbent U.S. representative (2023–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.9M
- From individuals
- $1.1M
- Spent
- $858.8K
- Cash on hand
- $2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Rhode Island › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Rhode Island's 1st District
Amo is very likely to win: Amo wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Amo (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Keenan (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+35.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+27 to D+44
- Partisan lean
- D+24
- Polls
- 1in our database
Amo is very likely to win: Amo wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Amo (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Keenan (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+33.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+24 to D+43
- Partisan lean
- D+24
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Kellie Keenan
Entrepreneur
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $12.8K
- From individuals
- $4.7K
- Spent
- $10.4K
- Cash on hand
- $2.3K
Money: FEC, through Aug 20, 2026.
Independent
Pedro DeSouza
Small business owner
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $13.1K
- From individuals
- $3.6K
- Spent
- $13K
- Cash on hand
- $62
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- +4.6How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.02 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 11.25 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 11.25 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Amo | Keenan | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/WPRI-TV | Oct 8–Oct 11 | 394 LV | 54 | 26 | D+28 | D+29.8 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 11, 2026.
The district
Lean D+24: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 539,355
- People per km²
- 408
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 64%
- Hispanic 20%
- Black 6%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
221,118 votes · D+32.7✓ Gabe Amo (D)63.0%
Allen Rodney Waters (R)32.0%
C. D. Reynolds (I)4.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
232,257 two-party votes · D+22.1 · D+23.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)61.1%
Donald Trump (R)38.9%
2023 special
66,683 votes · D+29.8✓ Amo, Gabriel, Jr. (D)64.9%
Leonard, Gerry W., Jr. (R)35.1%
2022
156,734 votes · D+28.3✓ David N Cicilline (D)64.0%
Allen R Waters (R)35.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
223,860 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ David N Cicilline (D)70.8%
Frederick Wysocki (I)15.8%
Jeffrey Edward Lemire (I)12.6%
Writein (—)0.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
236,238 two-party votes · D+29.5 · D+25.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)64.8%
Donald Trump (R)35.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
174,083 votes · D+33.7✓ David N Cicilline (D)66.7%
Patrick J Donovan (R)33.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
204,363 two-party votes · D+26.5 · D+24.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)63.2%
Donald Trump (R)36.8%