Maine › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Flip risk: Democratic-held seat, a toss-up (45% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (64%).
LePage is favored to win: LePage wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
In November, voters rank candidates for U.S. Senate and U.S. House; if nobody has a majority, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to each voter's next choice. Governor and legislative races are decided by plurality. The forecast models the final round for Congress.
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
State auditor of Maine (2021, 2022–present)
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Former governor of Maine (2011–2019) and nominee for governor in 2022
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.59 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 11.59 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Dunlap | LePage | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research for Dunlap's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 27–Sep 30 | 500 LV | 50 | 48 | D+2 | R+4.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 627 LV | 51 | 45 | D+6 | D+6.5 |
| Impact Research for the House Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidatesD-sponsored | Sep 8–Sep 12 | 500 LV | 49 | 49 | Even | R+5.1 |
| DCCC Targeting TeamD-sponsored | Aug 11–Aug 13 | 621 LV | 48 | 49 | R+1 | R+2.4 |
| Tulchin Research for Dunlap's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 11–Jul 16 | 600 LV | 49 | 48 | D+1 | R+3.9 |
| co/efficient for the National Republican Congressional CommitteeR-sponsored | Apr 26–Apr 28 | 918 LV | 40 | 50 | R+10 | R+1.8 |
| University of New Hampshire | Feb 12–Feb 16 | 521 LV | 46 | 47 | R+1 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 30, 2026.
Lean R+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.