Democratic
Lakesha Womack
Business consultant
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $24.9K
- From individuals
- $22.7K
- Spent
- $26.1K
- Cash on hand
- -$376
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
North Carolina › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina's 14th District
Moore is clearly favored to win: Moore wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Womack (D)
16%
chance of winning
Moore (R)
84%
- Average margin
- R+6.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- 1in our database
Moore is favored to win: Moore wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Womack (D)
28%
chance of winning
Moore (R)
72%
- Average margin
- R+4.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.09 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Womack | Moore | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners for Conservatives For America, an organization linked to the Republican Study CommitteeR-sponsored | Mar 10–Mar 12 | 400 LV | 40 | 48 | R+8 | D+1.1 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Mar 12, 2026.
The district
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 770,689
- People per km²
- 133
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 66%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 15%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
401,263 votes · R+16.1✓ Tim Moore (R)58.1%
Pam Genant (D)41.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
403,442 two-party votes · R+15.2 · R+13.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.6%
Kamala Harris (D)42.4%
2022 Earlier district lines
257,752 votes · D+15.4✓ Jeff Jackson (D)57.7%
Pat Harrigan (R)42.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
424,652 two-party votes · R+17.4 · R+21.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.7%
Joe Biden (D)41.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
334,512 two-party votes · R+22.1 · R+24.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.9%