Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut's 5th District
FusionHayes is very likely to win: Hayes wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hayes (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Shea (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+20.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+12 to D+30
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hayes is very likely to win: Hayes wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Hayes (D)
96%
chance of winning
Shea (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+16.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Jahana Hayes
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.7M
- From individuals
- $799.6K
- Spent
- $989.4K
- Cash on hand
- $1.2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Chris Shea
Firefighter
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $431K
- From individuals
- $352.4K
- Spent
- $358.2K
- Cash on hand
- $72.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- +4.6How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.28 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.37 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.37 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 719,488
- People per km²
- 217
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 61%
- Hispanic 21%
- Black 8%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
337,605 votes · D+6.8✓ Jahana Hayes (D)53.4%
George Logan (R)46.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
336,106 two-party votes · D+5.7 · D+7.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.9%
Donald Trump (R)47.1%
2022
253,658 votes · D+0.8✓ Jahana Hayes (D)50.4%
George Logan (R)49.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
349,524 votes · D+11.8✓ Jahana Hayes (D)55.1%
David X Sullivan (R)43.5%
Bruce W Walczak (I)1.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
351,546 two-party votes · D+10.9 · D+6.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.5%
Donald Trump (R)44.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
270,664 votes · D+11.7✓ Jahana Hayes (D)55.9%
Manny Santos (R)44.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
309,081 votes · D+16.0✓ Elizabeth Esty (D)58.0%
Clay Cope (R)42.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
306,887 two-party votes · D+4.4 · D+2.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.2%
Donald Trump (R)47.8%