Democratic
Zack Mullock
Mayor of Cape May (2021–present)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $824.1K
- From individuals
- $667.5K
- Spent
- $706.8K
- Cash on hand
- $117.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
New Jersey › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Jersey's 2nd District
Drew is favored to win: Drew wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Mullock (D)
22%
chance of winning
Drew (R)
78%
- Average margin
- R+5.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Drew is favored to win: Drew wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Mullock (D)
37%
chance of winning
Drew (R)
63%
- Average margin
- R+2.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Jeff Van Drew
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.3M
- From individuals
- $1.9M
- Spent
- $1.9M
- Cash on hand
- $1.2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.71 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.56 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.56 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 789,141
- People per km²
- 103
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 63%
- Hispanic 18%
- Black 10%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
371,178 votes · R+17.1✓ Jefferson van Drew (R)58.1%
Joseph F. Salerno (D)41.1%
Thomas Cannavo (G)0.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
379,474 two-party votes · R+13.0 · R+11.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.5%
Kamala Harris (D)43.5%
2022
709,452 votes · R+19.1✓ Jefferson van Drew (R)58.9%
Tim Alexander (D)40.0%
Michael Gallo (L)0.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
376,547 votes · R+5.9✓ Jefferson van Drew (R)51.9%
Amy Kennedy (D)46.2%
Jenna Harvey (OTH)1.1%
Jesse Ehrnstrom (L)0.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
438,154 two-party votes · R+5.1 · R+9.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.5%
Joe Biden (D)47.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
258,439 votes · D+7.8✓ Jeff van Drew (D)52.9%
Seth Grossman (R)45.2%
John Ordille (L)0.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
297,927 votes · R+22.8✓ Frank A Lobiondo (R)59.2%
David H Cole (D)37.2%
John Ordille (L)1.3%
James Keenan (OTH)0.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
331,335 two-party votes · R+7.4 · R+9.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.3%