Democratic
Bobby Pulido
Tejano musician
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $3M
- From individuals
- $2.4M
- Spent
- $1.8M
- Cash on hand
- $1.2M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 15th District
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (54% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Pulido (D)
54%
chance of winning
Cruz (R)
46%
- Average margin
- D+0.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- 5in our database
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (66%).
Pulido is favored to win: Pulido wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Pulido (D)
66%
chance of winning
Cruz (R)
34%
- Average margin
- D+3.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- 5in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Monica De La Cruz
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $6.6M
- From individuals
- $4M
- Spent
- $6.4M
- Cash on hand
- $803K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.52 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 5 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Pulido | Cruz | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington Petts for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Sep 24–Sep 28 | 400 LV | 54 | 41 | D+13 | D+8.1 |
| Public Policy Research/Texas Southern University | Aug 18–Aug 22 | 700 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 | D+5.7 |
| Normington Petts for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Jul 23–Jul 27 | 553 LV | 51 | 45 | D+6 | D+2.0 |
| Applecart for WelcomePAC, which supports PulidoD-sponsored | May 18–May 25 | 802 LV | 48 | 46 | D+2 | R+0.7 |
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Sep 10–Sep 11 | 533 LV | 38 | 41 | R+3 | R+4.9 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 28, 2026.
The district
Lean R+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 778,212
- People per km²
- 32
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 19%
- White, no degree
- 14%of adults
- White 16%
- Hispanic 81%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 1%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
223,769 votes · R+14.2✓ Monica de la Cruz (R)57.1%
Michelle Vallejo (D)42.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
223,608 two-party votes · R+17.7 · R+16.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.8%
Kamala Harris (D)41.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
151,889 votes · R+8.6✓ Monica de la Cruz (R)53.3%
Michelle Vallejo (D)44.8%
Ross Lynn Leone, Jr (L)1.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
228,920 votes · D+2.9✓ Vicente Gonzalez (D)50.5%
Monica de la Cruz-Hernandez (R)47.6%
Ross Lynn Leone (L)1.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
245,591 two-party votes · Even · R+4.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.0%
Joe Biden (D)50.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
164,804 votes · D+21.3✓ Vicente Gonzalez (D)59.7%
Tim Westley (R)38.8%
Anthony Cristo (L)1.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
177,479 votes · D+20.7✓ Vicente Gonzalez (D)57.3%
Tim Westley (R)37.7%
Vanessa S Tijerina (G)3.1%
Ross Lynn Leone (L)1.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
188,433 two-party votes · D+16.3 · D+14.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)58.2%
Donald Trump (R)41.8%