DemocraticIncumbent
Morgan McGarvey
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2M
- From individuals
- $1M
- Spent
- $1.3M
- Cash on hand
- $2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Kentucky › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kentucky's 3rd District
McGarvey is very likely to win: McGarvey wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McGarvey (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Rodriquez (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+31.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+23 to D+41
- Partisan lean
- D+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
McGarvey is very likely to win: McGarvey wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McGarvey (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Rodriquez (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+29.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+18 to D+41
- Partisan lean
- D+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Maria Rodriquez
- Raised
- $38.1K
- From individuals
- $32.6K
- Spent
- $22.3K
- Cash on hand
- $15.7K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.8 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.28 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 6.28 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 745,163
- People per km²
- 890
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 61%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 21%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
327,864 votes · D+23.9✓ Morgan McGarvey (D)61.9%
Mike Craven (R)38.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
326,452 two-party votes · D+19.3 · D+20.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)59.6%
Donald Trump (R)40.4%
2022
259,475 votes · D+24.0✓ Morgan McGarvey (D)62.0%
Stuart N Ray (R)38.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
367,999 votes · D+25.3✓ John A Yarmuth (D)62.7%
Rhonda Palazzo (R)37.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
357,113 two-party votes · D+23.0 · D+18.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)61.5%
Donald Trump (R)38.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
278,716 votes · D+25.9✓ John A Yarmuth (D)62.1%
Vickie Yates B Glisson (R)36.6%
Gregory Boles (L)1.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
334,809 votes · D+27.0✓ John A Yarmuth (D)63.4%
Harold Bratcher (R)36.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
335,485 two-party votes · D+14.9 · D+12.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.5%
Donald Trump (R)42.5%