Democratic
Brian Poindexter
Ironworker and Brook Park city councilman
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $3.1M
- From individuals
- $2.7M
- Spent
- $2M
- Cash on hand
- $1.1M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Ohio › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio's 7th District
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (66%).
Poindexter is favored to win: Poindexter wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Poindexter (D)
66%
chance of winning
Miller (R)
34%
- Average margin
- D+3.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- 5in our database
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (72%).
Poindexter is favored to win: Poindexter wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Poindexter (D)
72%
chance of winning
Miller (R)
28%
- Average margin
- D+4.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- 5in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Max Miller
Incumbent U.S. representative (2023–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3.3M
- From individuals
- $992.3K
- Spent
- $3.3M
- Cash on hand
- $122.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.63 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 5 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Poindexter | Miller | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bedrock Polling for International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers which supports Poindexter and The Next 50D-sponsored | Aug 7–Aug 10 | 866 LV | 43 | 35 | D+8 | D+6.9 |
| co/efficientR-sponsored | Aug 5–Aug 6 | 615 LV | 47 | 33 | D+14 | D+22.5 |
| Tavern ResearchD-sponsored | Aug 4–Aug 5 | 635 LV | 54 | 46 | D+8 | D+11.3 |
| co/efficientR-sponsored | Jul 29–Jul 30 | — LV | 44 | 39 | D+5 | D+11.1 |
| GBAO for Poindexter's campaignD-sponsored | Jun 16–Jun 20 | 500 LV | 43 | 44 | R+1 | R+6.0 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 10, 2026.
The district
Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 778,905
- People per km²
- 220
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 55%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 3%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
400,371 votes · R+17.2✓ Max L. Miller (R)51.1%
Matt Diemer (D)36.1%
Dennis Kucinich (I)12.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
422,422 two-party votes · R+11.1 · R+9.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.6%
Kamala Harris (D)44.4%
2022 Earlier district lines
303,573 votes · R+10.7✓ Max Miller (R)55.3%
Matthew Diemer (D)44.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
350,549 votes · R+39.6✓ Bob Gibbs (R)67.5%
Quentin Potter (D)29.2%
Brandon Lape (L)3.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
431,422 two-party votes · R+9.7 · R+14.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.8%
Joe Biden (D)45.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
260,653 votes · R+17.5✓ Bob Gibbs (R)58.7%
Ken Harbaugh (D)41.3%
2016 Earlier district lines
309,553 votes · R+37.7✓ Bob Gibbs (R)64.0%
Roy Rich (D)29.0%
Dan Phillip (I)7.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
376,623 two-party votes · R+12.5 · R+14.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.8%
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