Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Conservative, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
New York › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New York's 26th District
FusionKennedy is very likely to win: Kennedy wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Kennedy (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hannon (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+32.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+24 to D+42
- Partisan lean
- D+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Kennedy is very likely to win: Kennedy wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Kennedy (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hannon (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+30.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+19 to D+42
- Partisan lean
- D+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Tim Kennedy
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.3M
- From individuals
- $1.7M
- Spent
- $1.4M
- Cash on hand
- $1.2M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Republican
Dennis Hannon
Former construction worker
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.04 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 11.85 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 11.85 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 774,344
- People per km²
- 1,048
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 66%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 16%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
321,304 votes · D+30.3✓ Timothy M. Kennedy (D)65.1%
Anthony G. Marecki (R)34.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
334,720 two-party votes · D+19.6 · D+21.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)59.8%
Donald Trump (R)40.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
245,232 votes · D+28.0✓ Brian Higgins (D)64.0%
Steven L Sams II (R)36.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
319,835 votes · D+41.8✓ Brian Higgins (D)69.8%
Ricky T Donovan Sr (R)28.7%
Michael P Raleigh (G)1.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
348,178 two-party votes · D+25.6 · D+21.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)62.8%
Donald Trump (R)37.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
230,654 votes · D+46.7✓ Brian Higgins (D)73.3%
Renee M Zeno (R)26.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
288,666 votes · D+49.2✓ Brian Higgins (D)74.6%
Shelly Schratz (R)25.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
306,623 two-party votes · D+18.5 · D+16.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)59.2%
Donald Trump (R)40.8%