Democratic
Don Leonard
Educator
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.1M
- From individuals
- $966.7K
- Spent
- $949.7K
- Cash on hand
- $196.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Ohio › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio's 15th District
Carey is favored to win: Carey wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Leonard (D)
35%
chance of winning
Carey (R)
65%
- Average margin
- R+2.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- 3in our database
Carey is favored to win: Carey wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Leonard (D)
36%
chance of winning
Carey (R)
64%
- Average margin
- R+2.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- 3in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Mike Carey
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $4M
- From individuals
- $1.1M
- Spent
- $3.5M
- Cash on hand
- $627.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Libertarian
Brennan Barrington
Engineer
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.15 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Leonard | Carey | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Sep 22–Sep 24 | 500 LV | 46 | 45 | D+1 | R+3.0 |
| Hart Research for Leonard's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 6–Aug 9 | 401 LV | 37 | 41 | R+4 | R+8.4 |
| Hart Research for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Jun 23–Jun 25 | 550 LV | 40 | 45 | R+5 | R+8.7 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 24, 2026.
The district
Lean R+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 811,315
- People per km²
- 115
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 73%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 12%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
347,749 votes · R+12.9✓ Mike Carey (R)56.5%
Adam Miller (D)43.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
357,794 two-party votes · R+10.1 · R+8.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.0%
Kamala Harris (D)45.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
251,251 votes · R+13.9✓ Mike Carey (R)57.0%
Gary Josephson (D)43.0%
2021 specialEarlier district lines
162,089 votes · R+16.6✓ Carey, Mike (R)58.3%
Russo, Allison (D)41.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
383,361 votes · R+26.9✓ Steve Stivers (R)63.4%
Joel Newby (D)36.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
361,596 two-party votes · R+7.4 · R+12.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.7%
Joe Biden (D)46.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
292,443 votes · R+19.0✓ Steve Stivers (R)58.3%
Rick Neal (D)39.7%
Johnathan Miller (L)2.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
312,064 two-party votes · R+10.9 · R+13.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.5%
Also on the ballot in Ohio
Neighboring districts
OH-1Greg LandsmanEric Conroy95%Dem.85%Dem. OH-2Jennifer MazzuckelliDavid Taylor>99%Rep.>99%Rep. OH-3Joyce BeattyCleophus Dulaney>99%Dem.>99%Dem. OH-4Joshua KolasinskiJim Jordan>99%Rep.>99%Rep. OH-8Vanessa EnochWarren Davidson86%Rep.80%Rep. OH-10Kristina KnickerbockerMike Turner77%Rep.73%Rep. OH-12Jerrad ChristianTroy Balderson>99%Rep.99%Rep.