Wisconsin › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (57% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (50% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
Former Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation board member and nominee for this district in 2024
Money: FEC, through Jul 22, 2026.
Incumbent U.S. representative
Money: FEC, through Jul 22, 2026.
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.62 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.42 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 6.42 |
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Cooke | Orden | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 Research for the House Majority PAC, which supports CookeD-sponsored | Jun 20–Jun 25 | 535 LV | 50 | 46 | D+4 | R+0.2 |
| Impact Research for Cooke's campaignD-sponsored | May 26–May 31 | 500 LV | 50 | 46 | D+4 | R+0.5 |
| Impact Research for Cooke's campaignD-sponsored | Feb 12–Feb 17 | 500 LV | 49 | 48 | D+1 | R+2.2 |
| Public Policy Polling for the House Majority PAC, which supports CookeD-sponsored | Oct 14–Oct 15 | 609 LV | 44 | 42 | D+2 | D+2.1 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jun 25, 2026.
Lean R+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.