Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Conservative, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
New York › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New York's 16th District
FusionLatimer is very likely to win: Latimer wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Latimer (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Cinquemani (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+46.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+38 to D+56
- Partisan lean
- D+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Latimer is very likely to win: Latimer wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Latimer (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Cinquemani (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+42.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+31 to D+55
- Partisan lean
- D+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
George Latimer
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $662.2K
- From individuals
- $388.9K
- Spent
- $714K
- Cash on hand
- $140.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Joseph Cinquemani
Attorney
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.51 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 9.5 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 9.5 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+36: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 776,196
- People per km²
- 1,904
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 49%
- White, no degree
- 15%of adults
- White 40%
- Hispanic 29%
- Black 20%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
305,079 votes · D+43.2✓ George S. Latimer (D)71.3%
Miriam Levitt Flisser (R)28.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
324,301 two-party votes · D+33.3 · D+34.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)66.7%
Donald Trump (R)33.3%
2022 Earlier district lines
207,924 votes · D+28.6✓ Jamaal Bowman (D)64.2%
Miriam L Flisser (R)35.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
259,896 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jamaal Bowman (D)84.1%
Patrick McManus (C)15.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
331,415 two-party votes · D+45.0 · D+40.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)72.5%
Donald Trump (R)27.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
183,110 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Eliot L Engel (D)99.4%
Write-In (—)0.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
222,230 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Eliot L Engel (D)94.4%
Derickson K Lawrence (OTH)5.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
296,197 two-party votes · D+45.4 · D+43.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)72.7%
Donald Trump (R)27.3%