DemocraticIncumbent
Maggie Goodlander
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $4.8M
- From individuals
- $3.3M
- Spent
- $2.5M
- Cash on hand
- $2.4M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
New Hampshire › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire's 2nd District
Goodlander is very likely to win: Goodlander wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Goodlander (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Williams (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+19.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+12 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- 8in our database
Goodlander is very likely to win: Goodlander wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Goodlander (D)
95%
chance of winning
Williams (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+15.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- 8in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Lily Tang Williams
Former chair of the Colorado Libertarian Party, nominee for this district in 2024 and candidate in 2022, and Libertarian nominee for U.S. Senate in Colorado in 2016
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.4M
- From individuals
- $1.2M
- Spent
- $844K
- Cash on hand
- $662.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- +4.6How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.85 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.57 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.57 |
Polls
All 8 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Goodlander | Williams | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 702 LV | 56 | 35 | D+21 | D+23.4 |
| Saint Anselm College | Aug 17–Aug 18 | 701 LV | 50 | 35 | D+15 | D+18.4 |
| Saint Anselm College | Jun 24–Jun 25 | 802 RV | 50 | 31 | D+19 | D+24.5 |
| Saint Anselm College | Mar 16–Mar 18 | 739 RV | 48 | 36 | D+12 | D+15.6 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jan 15–Jan 19 | 1,093 LV | 54 | 40 | D+14 | D+17.2 |
| Saint Anselm College | Nov 18–Nov 19 | 1,102 RV | 40 | 35 | D+5 | |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–Sep 23 | 659 LV | 51 | 39 | D+12 | D+16.5 |
| Saint Anselm College | Aug 26–Aug 27 | 881 RV | 49 | 31 | D+18 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 21, 2026.
The district
Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 700,601
- People per km²
- 39
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 40%
- White, no degree
- 54%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 1%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
399,818 votes · D+6.0✓ Maggie Goodlander (D)52.9%
Lily Tang Williams (R)47.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
405,877 two-party votes · D+3.6 · D+5.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.8%
Donald Trump (R)48.2%
2022
307,215 votes · D+11.7✓ Ann M Kuster (D)55.9%
Robert Burns (R)44.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
386,441 votes · D+10.4✓ Ann M Kuster (D)53.9%
Steven Negron (R)43.7%
Andrew Olding (L)2.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
394,054 two-party votes · D+9.0 · D+4.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.5%
Donald Trump (R)45.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
279,705 votes · D+13.7✓ Anne McLane Kuster (D)55.5%
Steven Negron (R)42.2%
Justin O'Donnell (L)2.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
350,272 votes · D+4.7✓ Ann M Kuster (D)49.8%
Jim Lawrence (R)45.3%
John J Babiarz (I)4.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
346,871 two-party votes · D+2.6 · D+0.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.3%
Donald Trump (R)48.7%