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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 14th District
Castor is favored to win: Castor wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Castor (D)
72%
chance of winning
Beltran (R)
28%
- Average margin
- D+3.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- 1in our database
Castor is favored to win: Castor wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Castor (D)
64%
chance of winning
Beltran (R)
36%
- Average margin
- D+2.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- 1in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Kathy Castor
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $4.5M
- From individuals
- $2.8M
- Spent
- $3.2M
- Cash on hand
- $1.5M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Mike Beltran
Former state representative from the 70th district (2018–2024)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $2.6M
- From individuals
- $284.1K
- Spent
- $746.9K
- Cash on hand
- $1.8M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.35 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Castor | Beltran | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | Jul 14–Jul 15 | 469 LV | 46 | 38 | D+8 | D+8.8 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jul 15, 2026.
The district
Lean R+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 812,619
- People per km²
- 373
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 32%of adults
- White 50%
- Hispanic 28%
- Black 13%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
350,185 votes · D+15.6✓ Kathy Castor (D)56.9%
Robert "rocky" Rochford (R)41.6%
Christopher Bradley (I)0.7%
Nathaniel T. Snyder (L)0.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
383,887 two-party votes · R+10.5 · R+9.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.3%
Kamala Harris (D)44.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
263,164 votes · D+13.8✓ Kathy Castor (D)56.9%
James Judge (R)43.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
372,136 votes · D+20.5✓ Kathy Castor (D)60.3%
Christine Y Quinn (R)39.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
530,052 two-party votes · R+2.5 · R+7.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.3%
Joe Biden (D)48.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
1 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Kathy Castor (D)100.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
316,877 votes · D+23.6✓ Kathy Castor (D)61.8%
Christine Quinn (R)38.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
437,012 two-party votes · R+5.7 · R+7.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.2%