DemocraticIncumbent
Frank Pallone
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.2M
- From individuals
- $735.2K
- Spent
- $2.2M
- Cash on hand
- $3.1M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
New Jersey › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Jersey's 6th District
Pallone is very likely to win: Pallone wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Pallone (D)
99%
chance of winning
Herzig (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+22.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+13 to D+32
- Partisan lean
- D+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Pallone is very likely to win: Pallone wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Pallone (D)
96%
chance of winning
Herzig (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+17.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Hillary Herzig
Civil servant
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $11K
- From individuals
- $6.3K
- Spent
- $10.1K
- Cash on hand
- $943
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.63 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 9.13 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 9.13 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 776,424
- People per km²
- 776
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 25%of adults
- White 42%
- Hispanic 25%
- Black 11%
- Asian 18%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
303,949 votes · D+16.3✓ Frank Pallone, Jr. (D)56.0%
Scott Fegler (R)40.3%
Fahad Akhtar (OTH)1.6%
Herb Tarbous (G)1.4%
Matthew Amitrano (L)0.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
301,536 two-party votes · D+6.5 · D+8.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.3%
Donald Trump (R)46.7%
2022
554,757 votes · D+16.7✓ Frank Pallone, Jr (D)57.5%
Susan M Kiley (R)41.0%
Tara Fisher (L)0.7%
Inder Jit Soni (OTH)0.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
326,408 votes · D+22.3✓ Frank Pallone Jr (D)61.2%
Christian Onuoha (R)38.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
329,591 two-party votes · D+19.5 · D+15.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)59.8%
Donald Trump (R)40.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
221,195 votes · D+27.3✓ Frank Pallone Jr (D)63.6%
Richard J Pezzullo (R)36.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
262,413 votes · D+29.0✓ Frank Pallone Jr (D)63.6%
Brent Sonnek-Schmelz (R)35.0%
Rajit B Malliah (G)0.7%
Judith Shamy (L)0.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
280,612 two-party votes · D+19.7 · D+17.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)59.8%
Donald Trump (R)40.2%