Democratic
Anna Golladay
Small business owner
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $133.2K
- From individuals
- $125.3K
- Spent
- $78.3K
- Cash on hand
- $61.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Tennessee › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Tennessee's 3rd District
Fleischmann is very likely to win: Fleischmann wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Golladay (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Fleischmann (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+26.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+36 to R+18
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Fleischmann is very likely to win: Fleischmann wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Golladay (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Fleischmann (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+28.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+40 to R+17
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Chuck Fleischmann
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.7M
- From individuals
- $1.7M
- Spent
- $879.3K
- Cash on hand
- $5.1M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.64 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+35: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 789,430
- People per km²
- 82
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 56%of adults
- White 78%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 10%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
350,328 votes · R+39.4✓ Charles J. "chuck" Fleischmann (R)67.5%
Jack Allen (D)29.4%
Stephen "scooter" King (I)1.7%
Jean Howard-Hill (I)1.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
358,391 two-party votes · R+36.2 · R+34.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.1%
Kamala Harris (D)31.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
199,830 votes · R+38.7✓ CHARLES J âCHUCKâ FLEISCHMANN (R)68.4%
Meg Gorman (D)30.2%
Rick Tyler (I)0.9%
Thomas M Rumba (I)0.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
320,299 votes · R+37.6✓ Charles J "chuck" Fleischmann (R)67.3%
Meg Gorman (D)30.5%
Amber L Hysell (I)1.6%
Keith Douglas Sweitzer (I)0.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
343,127 two-party votes · R+32.3 · R+36.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.1%
Joe Biden (D)33.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
245,765 votes · R+29.8✓ Chuck Fleischmann (R)63.7%
Danielle Mitchell (D)34.5%
Rick Tyler (I)1.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
266,006 votes · R+39.4✓ Charles J "chuck" Fleischmann (R)66.4%
Melody Shekari (D)28.8%
Rick Tyler (I)1.9%
Cassandra Mitchell (I)1.9%
Topher Kersting (I)0.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
275,630 two-party votes · R+36.9 · R+39.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.6%