Democratic
Janelle Stelson
Former WGAL news anchor and nominee for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $8.7M
- From individuals
- $6.9M
- Spent
- $6.2M
- Cash on hand
- $2.5M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Pennsylvania › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania's 10th District
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (72%).
Stelson is favored to win: Stelson wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Stelson (D)
72%
chance of winning
Perry (R)
28%
- Average margin
- D+3.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- 4in our database
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (66%).
Stelson is favored to win: Stelson wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Stelson (D)
66%
chance of winning
Perry (R)
34%
- Average margin
- D+2.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- 4in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Scott Perry
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $6.5M
- From individuals
- $4.1M
- Spent
- $4.9M
- Cash on hand
- $1.6M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.76 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.18 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 6.18 |
Polls
All 4 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Stelson | Perry | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall College | Sep 9–Sep 20 | 390 RV | 47 | 44 | D+3 | D+1.7 |
| Normington Petts for Stelson's campaignD-sponsored | Apr 20–Apr 23 | 400 RV | 51 | 45 | D+6 | D+2.2 |
| Public Policy Polling for Republicans Against PerryD-sponsored | Nov 18–Nov 19 | 549 RV | 48 | 44 | D+4 | D+2.7 |
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC, which supports StelsonD-sponsored | Jul 10–Jul 11 | 559 V | 46 | 43 | D+3 | D+3.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 20, 2026.
The district
Lean R+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 777,419
- People per km²
- 232
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 70%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 10%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
406,001 votes · R+1.3✓ Scott Perry (R)50.6%
Janelle Stelson (D)49.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
407,169 two-party votes · R+5.3 · R+3.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.6%
Kamala Harris (D)47.4%
2022
314,546 votes · R+7.7✓ Scott Perry (R)53.8%
Shamaine Daniels (D)46.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
391,834 votes · R+6.6✓ Scott G Perry (R)53.3%
Eugene A Depasquale (D)46.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
420,508 two-party votes · R+3.6 · R+8.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.8%
Joe Biden (D)48.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
291,033 votes · R+2.6✓ Scott G Perry (R)51.3%
George B Scott (D)48.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
301,105 votes · R+40.3✓ Tom Marino (R)70.2%
Mike Molesevich (D)29.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
359,484 two-party votes · R+10.2 · R+12.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.9%