DemocraticIncumbent
Hillary Scholten
Incumbent U.S. representative (2023–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.9M
- From individuals
- $2M
- Spent
- $1.8M
- Cash on hand
- $1.5M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Michigan › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan's 3rd District
Scholten is very likely to win: Scholten wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Scholten (D)
99%
chance of winning
DeBoer (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+20.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Scholten is very likely to win: Scholten wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Scholten (D)
95%
chance of winning
DeBoer (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+15.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Terri DeBoer
Meteorologist
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $857.4K
- From individuals
- $736.7K
- Spent
- $742.3K
- Cash on hand
- $115.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.36 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.61 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.61 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 781,313
- People per km²
- 160
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 43%of adults
- White 70%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 11%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
420,289 votes · D+10.1✓ Hillary J. Scholten (D)53.7%
Paul Hudson (R)43.8%
Louis Palus (WCP)1.3%
Alex Avery (L)1.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
421,126 two-party votes · D+7.9 · D+9.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.0%
Donald Trump (R)46.0%
2022
338,988 votes · D+13.3✓ Hillary Scholten (D)54.9%
John Gibbs (R)42.0%
Jamie Lewis (L)2.0%
Louis Palus (WCP)1.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
403,419 votes · R+5.9✓ Peter Meijer (R)53.0%
Hillary Scholten (D)47.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
409,870 two-party votes · D+8.6 · D+4.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.3%
Donald Trump (R)45.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
310,740 votes · R+11.5✓ Justin Amash (R)54.4%
Cathy Albro (D)43.2%
Ted Gerrard (CST)2.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
342,365 votes · R+22.6✓ Justin Amash (R)59.5%
Douglas Smith (D)37.5%
Ted Gerrard (CST)3.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
333,923 two-party votes · D+0.2 · R+2.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.1%
Donald Trump (R)49.9%