Democratic
Darden Copeland
Consultant and candidate for this district in 2025
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $868.6K
- From individuals
- $636.5K
- Spent
- $789.9K
- Cash on hand
- $78.7K
Money: FEC, through Jul 17, 2026.
Tennessee › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Tennessee's 7th District
Epps is very likely to win: Epps wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Copeland (D)
3%
chance of winning
Epps (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+13.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Epps is clearly favored to win: Epps wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Copeland (D)
6%
chance of winning
Epps (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+13.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Matt Van Epps
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.6M
- From individuals
- $1.8M
- Spent
- $2.3M
- Cash on hand
- $308.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.6 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 791,608
- People per km²
- 103
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 72%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 13%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2025 specialEarlier district lines
180,012 votes · R+8.9✓ Matt Van Epps (R)53.9%
Aftyn Behn (D)45.1%
Jon Thorp (I)0.5%
2024 Earlier district lines
322,656 votes · R+22.0✓ Mark E. Green (R)59.5%
Megan Barry (D)38.0%
Shaun Greene (I)2.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
354,450 two-party votes · R+22.4 · R+20.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.2%
Kamala Harris (D)38.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
180,822 votes · R+22.2✓ Mark E Green (R)60.0%
Odessa Kelly (D)38.1%
Steven J Hooper (I)1.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
350,635 votes · R+43.8✓ Mark E Green (R)69.9%
Kiran Sreepada (D)27.3%
Ronald Brown (I)2.2%
Scott Anthony Vieira Jr (I)0.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
345,794 two-party votes · R+18.2 · R+22.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.1%
Joe Biden (D)40.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
254,384 votes · R+35.1✓ Mark E Green (R)66.9%
Justin Kanew (D)32.1%
Leonard D "lenny" Ladner (I)0.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
263,130 two-party votes · R+21.6 · R+23.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.2%