DemocraticIncumbent
Steven Horsford
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3.4M
- From individuals
- $1.3M
- Spent
- $1.9M
- Cash on hand
- $1.5M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Nevada › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada's 4th District
Horsford is very likely to win: Horsford wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Horsford (D)
96%
chance of winning
Whipple (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+13.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Horsford is clearly favored to win: Horsford wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Horsford (D)
87%
chance of winning
Whipple (R)
13%
- Average margin
- D+10.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Cody Whipple
Telecommunications business owner
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $884.7K
- From individuals
- $557.5K
- Spent
- $599.5K
- Cash on hand
- $285.2K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.26 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 7.25 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 7.25 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 841,573
- People per km²
- 8
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 22%
- White, no degree
- 31%of adults
- White 36%
- Hispanic 36%
- Black 15%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
332,097 votes · D+8.3✓ Steven Horsford (D)52.7%
John Lee (R)44.6%
Russell Best (I)1.5%
Tim "t J" Ferreira (L)1.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
335,481 two-party votes · D+2.5 · D+4.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.2%
Donald Trump (R)48.8%
2022
222,353 votes · D+4.8✓ Steven Horsford (D)52.4%
Sam Peters (R)47.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
332,320 votes · D+5.1✓ Steven Horsford (D)50.7%
Jim Marchant (R)45.8%
Jonathan Royce Esteban (L)2.4%
Barry L Rubinson (I)1.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
317,721 two-party votes · D+7.2 · D+2.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.6%
Donald Trump (R)46.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
234,868 votes · D+8.6✓ Steven A Horsford (D)51.9%
Cresent Hardy (R)43.7%
Warren Ross Markowitz (I)1.4%
Rodney Smith (I)1.2%
Gregg Luckner (L)0.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
265,713 votes · D+4.3✓ Ruben Kihuen (D)48.5%
Cresent Hardy (R)44.5%
Steve Brown (L)3.8%
Mike Little (I)3.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
246,119 two-party votes · D+9.5 · D+7.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.8%
Donald Trump (R)45.2%