Democratic
Jennifer Todd
Former nurse
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $199K
- From individuals
- $179K
- Spent
- $142.2K
- Cash on hand
- $56.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Illinois › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois's 15th District
Miller is very likely to win: Miller wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Todd (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Miller (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+33.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+42 to R+25
- Partisan lean
- R+40
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Miller is very likely to win: Miller wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Todd (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Miller (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+32.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+44 to R+21
- Partisan lean
- R+40
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Mary Miller
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.8M
- From individuals
- $1.6M
- Spent
- $1.5M
- Cash on hand
- $938.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.72 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -17.18 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -17.18 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+40: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 757,093
- People per km²
- 17
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 67%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 3%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
318,329 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mary E. Miller (R)97.0%
Write-In (—)2.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
375,195 two-party votes · R+40.4 · R+38.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.2%
Kamala Harris (D)29.8%
2022
299,403 votes · R+42.3✓ Mary E Miller (R)71.1%
Paul J Lange (D)28.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
333,506 votes · R+46.9✓ Mary Miller (R)73.4%
Erika C Weaver (D)26.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
395,375 two-party votes · R+39.7 · R+44.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.9%
Joe Biden (D)30.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
255,619 votes · R+41.9✓ John M Shimkus (R)70.9%
Kevin Gaither (D)29.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
274,554 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ John Shimkus (R)100.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
355,627 two-party votes · R+41.0 · R+43.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)29.5%