DemocraticIncumbent
Shomari Figures
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.4M
- From individuals
- $982.2K
- Spent
- $1.1M
- Cash on hand
- $1.4M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Alabama › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Alabama's 2nd District
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (81%).
Marques is clearly favored to win: Marques wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Figures (D)
19%
chance of winning
Marques (R)
81%
- Average margin
- R+5.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- 3in our database
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (79%).
Marques is favored to win: Marques wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Figures (D)
21%
chance of winning
Marques (R)
79%
- Average margin
- R+5.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- 3in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Rhett Marques
State representative from the 91st district (2018–present) and candidate for the 1st district in the May primary
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $1.3M
- From individuals
- $1.1M
- Spent
- $1.1M
- Cash on hand
- $187.7K
Money: FEC, through Jul 22, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.91 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Figures | Marques | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research for the House Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidatesD-sponsored | Aug 24–Aug 31 | — V | 47 | 47 | Even | R+5.2 |
| DCCC for Figures's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 29–Jul 30 | 421 LV | 46 | 46 | Even | R+5.1 |
| Impact Research for the DCCCD-sponsored | Jun 22–Jun 25 | 400 LV | 44 | 45 | R+1 | R+5.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 31, 2026.
The district
Lean R+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 721,631
- People per km²
- 29
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 50%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 40%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
289,674 votes · D+9.2✓ Shomari Figures (D)54.6%
Caroleene Dobson (R)45.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
290,324 two-party votes · R+14.5 · R+13.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.3%
Kamala Harris (D)42.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
198,961 votes · R+40.6✓ Barry Moore (R)69.1%
Phyllis Harvey-Hall (D)29.2%
Jonathan Realz (L)1.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
303,569 votes · R+30.6✓ Barry Moore (R)65.2%
Phyllis Harvey-Hall (D)34.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
338,489 two-party votes · R+7.8 · R+12.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.9%
Joe Biden (D)46.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
226,219 votes · R+23.0✓ Martha Roby (R)61.4%
Tabitha Isner (D)38.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
276,583 votes · R+9.2✓ Martha Roby (R)48.8%
Nathan Mathis (D)40.5%
[Write-in] (—)10.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
287,134 two-party votes · R+11.2 · R+13.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.4%