Democratic
Dan Schwartz
Consumer advocate
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $695.2K
- From individuals
- $668K
- Spent
- $622.6K
- Cash on hand
- $72.6K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Maryland › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland's 1st District
Harris is very likely to win: Harris wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Schwartz (D)
3%
chance of winning
Harris (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+12.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- 1in our database
Harris is very likely to win: Harris wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Schwartz (D)
5%
chance of winning
Harris (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+13.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Andy Harris
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.6M
- From individuals
- $2.1M
- Spent
- $2.1M
- Cash on hand
- $1.3M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.97 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.27 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.27 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Schwartz | Harris | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z to A Research for Schwartz's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 23–Jul 27 | 482 LV | 39 | 52 | R+13 | R+17.6 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jul 27, 2026.
The district
Lean R+17: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 793,028
- People per km²
- 56
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 71%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 15%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
414,680 votes · R+22.8✓ Andy Harris (R)59.4%
Blane H. Miller III (D)37.4%
Joshua W. O’brien (L)3.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
415,550 two-party votes · R+17.3 · R+15.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.6%
Kamala Harris (D)41.4%
2022
293,358 votes · R+11.6✓ Andy Harris (R)54.4%
Heather R Mizeur (D)43.1%
Daniel Frank Thibeault (L)2.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
395,524 votes · R+27.1✓ Andy Harris (R)63.4%
Mia Mason (D)36.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
445,088 two-party votes · R+13.5 · R+18.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.8%
Joe Biden (D)43.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
306,186 votes · R+22.3✓ Andy Harris (R)60.0%
Jesse Colvin (D)38.1%
Jenica Martin (L)1.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
362,093 votes · R+40.1✓ Andy Harris (R)67.0%
Joe Werner (D)28.6%
Matt Beers (L)4.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
354,712 two-party votes · R+24.5 · R+26.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.8%