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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Michigan › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Michigan's 7th District

Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (60%).

Lawrence is favored to win: Lawrence wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.

Lawrence (D)
60%
chance of winning
Barrett (R)
40%
Average margin
D+1.5
80% of outcomes
R+7 to D+10
Partisan lean
R+1
Polls
2in our database

Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (57% chance it changes parties).

A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.

Lawrence (D)
57%
chance of winning
Barrett (R)
43%
Average margin
D+1.2
80% of outcomes
R+8 to D+11
Partisan lean
R+1
Polls
2in our database

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

D+1.5R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
D+1.2R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Lawrence 60%Barrett 40%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Lawrence 57%Barrett 43%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

RepublicanIncumbent

Tom Barrett

Incumbent U.S. representative (2025–present)

Experience
Statewide office or Congress
Raised
$7.9M
From individuals
$4.3M
Spent
$5.6M
Cash on hand
$2.4M

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Swing reaching this office
78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
Midwest adjustment
+1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 78% of the environment andthe Midwest adjustmentD+7.8Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+4.7Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Michigan andlook-alike placesD+4.6Polling average2 polls, latest Aug 13R+2.6Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+1.5Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+1.2

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-0.99
Elected-experience edge-1
First-term incumbent-1
Seat's last result vs. expectation-0.51
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation-0.51

Polls

R+5EvenD+5Avg. R+2.6Jun 30Nov 3
All 2 polls
PollsterDatesSampleLawrenceBarrettMarginAdjusted
Global Strategy Group for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsoredAug 11–Aug 13500 LV4947D+2R+2.9
Data for Progress for Lawrence's campaignD-sponsoredJun 24–Jun 30772 LV4846D+2R+0.1

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 13, 2026.

The district

Lean R+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+4.1R+6.3 vs. nation2020 presidentD+0.9R+3.6 vs. nation2024 presidentR+1.3D+0.2 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
780,179
People per km²
107
Adults with a B.A.+
38%
White, no degree
52%of adults
  • White 80%
  • Hispanic 6%
  • Black 5%
  • Asian 3%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

450,912 votes · R+3.8
✓ Tom Barrett (R)50.3%
Curtis Hertel (D)46.6%
L. Rachel Dailey (L)3.2%

2024 President Vote in this district

455,733 two-party votes · R+1.3 · D+0.2 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)50.7%
Kamala Harris (D)49.3%

2022

372,727 votes · D+5.5
✓ Elissa Slotkin (D)51.7%
Tom Barrett (R)46.3%
Leah R Dailey (L)2.0%

2020 Earlier district lines

387,267 votes · R+17.5
✓ Tim Walberg (R)58.8%
Gretchen D Driskell (D)41.2%

2020 President Vote in this district

440,757 two-party votes · D+0.9 · R+3.6 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)50.5%
Donald Trump (R)49.5%

2018 Earlier district lines

295,060 votes · R+7.6
✓ Tim Walberg (R)53.8%
Gretchen Driskell (D)46.2%

2016 Earlier district lines

334,807 votes · R+15.8
✓ Tim Walberg (R)55.1%
Gretchen D Driskell (D)40.0%
Ken Proctor (L)4.9%

2016 President Vote in this district

364,751 two-party votes · R+4.1 · R+6.3 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)52.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.0%

Also on the ballot in Michigan

U.S. SenateAbdul El-SayedMike Rogers76%Dem.76%Dem. GovernorJocelyn BensonJohn James90%Dem.88%Dem.

Neighboring districts

MI-2Ben AmbroseJohn Moolenaar>99%Rep.99%Rep. MI-4Sean McCannBill HuizengaFlip riskFlip risk54%Rep.59%Rep. MI-5Christian VukasovichTim Walberg>99%Rep.98%Rep. MI-6Debbie DingellHeather Smiley>99%Dem.>99%Dem. MI-8Kristen McDonald RivetThomas Smith94%Dem.75%Dem. MI-9Ray PooleyLisa McClain>99%Rep.99%Rep. MI-11Jeremy MossEthan Baker>99%Dem.99%Dem.