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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 28th District
Giménez is clearly favored to win: Giménez wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Ehr (D)
5%
chance of winning
Giménez (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+13.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Giménez is clearly favored to win: Giménez wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Ehr (D)
9%
chance of winning
Giménez (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+13.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Phil Ehr
Nonprofit executive, former Navy Commander, nominee for this district in 2024, nominee for the 1st district in 2020 and candidate in 2018
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $438.3K
- From individuals
- $94.9K
- Spent
- $76.3K
- Cash on hand
- $454.6K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Carlos Giménez
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $697.5K
- From individuals
- $226.3K
- Spent
- $531.4K
- Cash on hand
- $742.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.79 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 768,737
- People per km²
- 44
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 9%of adults
- White 15%
- Hispanic 72%
- Black 9%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
325,337 votes · R+29.1✓ Carlos A. Gimenez (R)64.6%
Phil Ehr (D)35.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
333,645 two-party votes · R+25.7 · R+24.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.8%
Kamala Harris (D)37.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
211,463 votes · R+27.4✓ Carlos A Gimenez (R)63.6%
Robert Asencio (D)36.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
354,095 two-party votes · R+6.2 · R+10.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.1%
Joe Biden (D)46.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
282,896 two-party votes · D+16.4 · D+14.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)58.2%
Donald Trump (R)41.8%