Democratic
Drew Cox
Veteran and instructor at Purdue University
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $54.1K
- From individuals
- $51.1K
- Spent
- $41.5K
- Cash on hand
- $12.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Indiana › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Indiana's 4th District
Baird is very likely to win: Baird wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Cox (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Baird (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+21.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+31 to R+14
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Baird is very likely to win: Baird wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Cox (D)
1%
chance of winning
Baird (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+22.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+34 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.91 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.25 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.25 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 772,010
- People per km²
- 49
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 58%of adults
- White 81%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 5%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
395,950 votes · R+33.8✓ James R. Baird (R)64.1%
Derrick Holder (D)31.7%
Ashley Groff (L)4.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
328,201 two-party votes · R+29.9 · R+28.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.9%
Kamala Harris (D)35.1%
2022
197,698 votes · R+36.4✓ James R Baird (R)68.2%
Roger D Day (D)31.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
338,515 votes · R+33.2✓ James R Baird (R)66.6%
Joe Mackey (D)33.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
344,571 two-party votes · R+30.2 · R+34.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.1%
Joe Biden (D)34.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
244,472 votes · R+28.1✓ Jim Baird (R)64.1%
Tobi Beck (D)35.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
299,445 votes · R+35.9✓ Todd Rokita (R)64.6%
John Dale (D)30.5%
Steven M Mayoras (L)4.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
315,185 two-party votes · R+38.1 · R+40.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.0%
Neighboring districts
IN-1Frank MrvanBarb Regnitz98%Dem.87%Dem. IN-2Jamee DecioRudy Yakym99%Rep.97%Rep. IN-5J. D. FordVictoria Spartz91%Rep.87%Rep. IN-6Cinde WirthJefferson Shreve>99%Rep.99%Rep. IN-7André CarsonPatrick McAuley>99%Dem.>99%Dem. IN-8Mary AllenMark Messmer>99%Rep.99%Rep. IN-9Brad MeyerErin Houchin>99%Rep.99%Rep.