All-party U.S. House election
For 2026, all U.S. House candidates of every party share one ballot on November 3. A candidate who wins more than half the vote is elected; otherwise the top two meet on December 12, 2026.
Louisiana › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Louisiana's 4th District
All-partyJohnson is very likely to win: Johnson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Cable (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Johnson (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+27.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+37 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Johnson is very likely to win: Johnson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Cable wins Nov 3
1%
Runoff Dec 12
1%
Johnson wins Nov 3
99%
Including the runoff: Cable 1% · Johnson 99% to win the seat. In a runoff, Cable wins 55% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+25.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+38 to R+14
- Partisan lean
- R+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticCandidate
Matt Gromlich
College professor
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $445.6K
- From individuals
- $80.8K
- Spent
- $411.9K
- Cash on hand
- $33.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
DemocraticCandidate
Conrad Cable
Farmer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $238.9K
- From individuals
- $236.6K
- Spent
- $210.6K
- Cash on hand
- $28.3K
Money: FEC, through Jul 18, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbentCandidate
Mike Johnson
Incumbent U.S. representative and Speaker of the House
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $24.2M
- From individuals
- $13.7M
- Spent
- $18M
- Cash on hand
- $7.5M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanCandidate
Gordon Heslop
- Raised
- $118.6K
- From individuals
- $635
- Spent
- $114K
- Cash on hand
- $6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanCandidate
Mike Nichols
Biologist
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $70.6K
- From individuals
- $23.1K
- Spent
- $66.8K
- Cash on hand
- $173
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.88 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+33: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 760,935
- People per km²
- 22
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 22%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 58%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 31%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
306,248 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mike Johnson (R)85.8%
Joshua Morott (R)14.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
316,718 two-party votes · R+34.5 · R+33.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.2%
Kamala Harris (D)32.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
1 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mike Johnson (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
306,578 votes · R+40.7✓ Mike Johns (R)60.4%
Kenny Houston (D)25.5%
Ryan Trundle (D)7.8%
Ben Gibson (R)6.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
430,125 two-party votes · R+28.4 · R+32.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.2%
Joe Biden (D)35.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
216,872 votes · R+31.3✓ "mike" Johnson (R)64.2%
Ryan Trundle (D)33.6%
Mark David Halverson (I)2.1%
2016 runoffEarlier district lines
133,949 votes · R+30.5✓ Johnson, Mike (R)65.2%
Jones, Marshall (D)34.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
434,472 two-party votes · R+28.3 · R+30.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.9%