Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Conservative, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
New York › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New York's 7th District
FusionValdez is very likely to win: Valdez wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Valdez (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Rivera (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+58.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+49 to D+68
- Partisan lean
- D+51
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Valdez is very likely to win: Valdez wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Valdez (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Rivera (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+57.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+46 to D+71
- Partisan lean
- D+51
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Claire Valdez
State assemblymember from the 37th district (2025–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $1.7M
- From individuals
- $1.6M
- Spent
- $1.5M
- Cash on hand
- $206.8K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Republican
Melvin Rivera
Activist and tenant organizer
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.48 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 8.11 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+51: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 770,863
- People per km²
- 13,281
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 45%
- White, no degree
- 14%of adults
- White 37%
- Hispanic 35%
- Black 10%
- Asian 12%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
221,779 votes · D+56.2✓ NYDIA M. VELáZQUEZ (D)77.9%
Bill Kregler (R)21.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
228,516 two-party votes · D+47.2 · D+48.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)73.6%
Donald Trump (R)26.4%
2022 Earlier district lines
148,070 votes · D+61.4✓ Nydia M Velazquez (D)80.7%
Juan Pagan (R)19.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
225,115 votes · D+70.9✓ Nydia M Velazquez (D)84.9%
Brian W Kelly (R)14.4%
Gilbert Midonnet (L)0.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
248,409 two-party votes · D+61.1 · D+56.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)80.6%
Donald Trump (R)19.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
157,097 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Nydia M Velazquez (D)93.4%
Joseph Lieberman (C)5.5%
Jeffrey M Kurzon (REF)1.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
189,890 votes · D+81.6✓ Nydia M Velazquez (D)90.7%
Allan E Romaguera (R)9.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
207,363 two-party votes · D+74.3 · D+72.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)87.1%
Donald Trump (R)12.9%