Democratic
Stefany Shaheen
Former Portsmouth city councilor and daughter of U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $3M
- From individuals
- $2.8M
- Spent
- $2.6M
- Cash on hand
- $429.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
New Hampshire › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Hampshire's 1st District
Shaheen is clearly favored to win: Shaheen wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Shaheen (D)
93%
chance of winning
DiLorenzo (R)
7%
- Average margin
- D+9.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- 1in our database
Shaheen is clearly favored to win: Shaheen wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Shaheen (D)
81%
chance of winning
DiLorenzo (R)
19%
- Average margin
- D+5.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Anthony DiLorenzo
Auto dealer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $5.1M
- From individuals
- $858.6K
- Spent
- $4.5M
- Cash on hand
- $600.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- +4.6How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.77 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 7.66 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Shaheen | DiLorenzo | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 711 LV | 46 | 42 | D+4 | D+4.8 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 21, 2026.
The district
Lean D+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 694,267
- People per km²
- 115
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 42%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 1%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
404,808 votes · D+8.1✓ Chris Pappas (D)54.0%
Russell Prescott (R)45.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
407,271 two-party votes · D+2.0 · D+3.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.0%
Donald Trump (R)49.0%
2022
309,620 votes · D+8.1✓ Chris Pappas (D)54.1%
Karoline Leavitt (R)45.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
400,661 votes · D+5.2✓ Chris Pappas (D)51.3%
Matt Mowers (R)46.2%
Zachary S Dumont (L)2.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
395,857 two-party votes · D+6.0 · D+1.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.0%
Donald Trump (R)47.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
291,039 votes · D+8.7✓ Chris Pappas (D)53.6%
Eddie Edwards (R)45.0%
Dan Belforti (L)1.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
365,572 votes · D+1.5✓ Carol Shea-Porter (D)44.3%
Frank C Guinta (R)43.0%
Shawn P O'Connor (I)9.5%
Brendan Kelly (I)1.7%
Robert Lombardo (L)1.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
346,862 two-party votes · R+1.8 · R+4.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.1%