Democratic
Bethany Mann
Technology specialist and nominee for this district in 2022 and 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $43.3K
- From individuals
- $43.1K
- Spent
- $45K
- Cash on hand
- $2.8K
Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.
Missouri › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri's 3rd District
Onder is very likely to win: Onder wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Mann (D)
1%
chance of winning
Onder (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+19.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Onder is very likely to win: Onder wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Mann (D)
2%
chance of winning
Onder (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+19.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+31 to R+8
- Partisan lean
- R+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.11 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.7 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.7 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+27: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 782,724
- People per km²
- 39
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 56%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 5%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
392,463 votes · R+26.9✓ Bob Onder (R)61.3%
Bethany E. Mann (D)35.3%
Jordan Rowden (L)2.4%
William Hastings (G)1.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
399,576 two-party votes · R+27.2 · R+25.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.6%
Kamala Harris (D)36.4%
2022
277,613 votes · R+30.2✓ Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)65.1%
Bethany Mann (D)34.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
407,348 votes · R+41.8✓ Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)69.4%
Megan Rezabek (D)28.5%
Leonard J Steinman II (L)2.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
396,151 two-party votes · R+26.8 · R+31.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.4%
Joe Biden (D)36.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
324,608 votes · R+32.9✓ Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)65.1%
Katy Geppert (D)32.8%
Donald V Stolle (L)2.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
368,333 votes · R+41.7✓ Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)67.8%
Kevin Miller (D)27.9%
Dan Hogan (L)3.2%
Doanita Simmons (CST)1.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
355,491 two-party votes · R+32.7 · R+34.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)33.7%