Democratic
Brad Smith
Businessman
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $295.1K
- From individuals
- $272.1K
- Spent
- $150.5K
- Cash on hand
- $144.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Wisconsin › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wisconsin's 6th District
Grothman is very likely to win: Grothman wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Smith (D)
4%
chance of winning
Grothman (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+12.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- 1in our database
Grothman is clearly favored to win: Grothman wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Smith (D)
6%
chance of winning
Grothman (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+13.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Glenn Grothman
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.1M
- From individuals
- $775.1K
- Spent
- $849.5K
- Cash on hand
- $816.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Independent
Michael Thurow
Firefighter
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $194.8K
- From individuals
- $176K
- Spent
- $176.8K
- Cash on hand
- $17.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.9 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.52 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.52 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Smith | Grothman | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern ResearchD-sponsored | May 18–May 28 | 437 LV | 39 | 61 | R+22 | R+19.0 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: May 28, 2026.
The district
Lean R+17: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 744,334
- People per km²
- 36
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 63%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 2%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
411,349 votes · R+22.6✓ Glenn Grothman (R)61.2%
John Zarbano (D)38.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
421,227 two-party votes · R+16.7 · R+15.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.3%
Kamala Harris (D)41.7%
2022
239,571 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Glenn Grothman (R)99.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
403,333 votes · R+18.5✓ Glenn Grothman (R)59.2%
Jessica J King (D)40.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
409,084 two-party votes · R+15.9 · R+20.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.0%
Joe Biden (D)42.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
324,847 votes · R+11.0✓ Glenn Grothman (R)55.5%
Dan Kohl (D)44.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
356,935 votes · R+21.1✓ Glenn Grothman (R)57.2%
Sarah Lloyd (D)37.3%
Jeff Dahlke (I)5.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
353,222 two-party votes · R+18.1 · R+20.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.0%