Democratic
Rachel Peace
Business owner
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $92.7K
- From individuals
- $79.7K
- Spent
- $83.2K
- Cash on hand
- $9.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
New Jersey › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Jersey's 4th District
Smith is very likely to win: Smith wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Peace (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Smith (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+23.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+32 to R+15
- Partisan lean
- R+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Smith is very likely to win: Smith wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Peace (D)
2%
chance of winning
Smith (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+20.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+33 to R+10
- Partisan lean
- R+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Chris Smith
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $592K
- From individuals
- $355.8K
- Spent
- $467.8K
- Cash on hand
- $488.3K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.5 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.14 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -5.14 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+28: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 784,837
- People per km²
- 431
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 80%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 3%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
394,546 votes · R+36.1✓ Christopher H. Smith (R)67.3%
Matthew Jenkins (D)31.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
406,309 two-party votes · R+30.7 · R+29.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.4%
Kamala Harris (D)34.6%
2022
776,886 votes · R+36.2✓ Christopher H Smith (R)66.9%
Matthew Jenkins (D)31.4%
Jason Cullen (L)0.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
424,368 votes · R+22.0✓ Christopher H Smith (R)59.9%
Stephanie Schmid (D)38.3%
Hank Schroeder (OTH)0.8%
Michael J Rufo (L)0.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
441,729 two-party votes · R+21.3 · R+25.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.7%
Joe Biden (D)39.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
294,424 votes · R+12.5✓ Christopher H Smith (R)55.4%
Joshua Welle (D)43.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
332,803 votes · R+31.1✓ Christopher H Smith (R)63.7%
Lorna Phillipson (D)33.5%
Hank Schroeder (OTH)1.8%
Jeremy Marcus (L)1.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
338,088 two-party votes · R+28.8 · R+31.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.6%