Democratic
Chris Backemeyer
Former deputy assistant secretary of state
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1M
- From individuals
- $871.1K
- Spent
- $487.3K
- Cash on hand
- $546.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Nebraska › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nebraska's 1st District
Flood is favored to win: Flood wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Backemeyer (D)
20%
chance of winning
Flood (R)
80%
- Average margin
- R+4.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- 5in our database
Flood is favored to win: Flood wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Backemeyer (D)
28%
chance of winning
Flood (R)
72%
- Average margin
- R+3.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- 5in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Mike Flood
Incumbent U.S. representative (2022–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.7M
- From individuals
- $1.2M
- Spent
- $1.7M
- Cash on hand
- $1.2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.49 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.94 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.94 |
Polls
All 5 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Backemeyer | Flood | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group for Fight for Nebraska PACD-sponsored | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 600 LV | 43 | 42 | D+1 | R+3.8 |
| Global Strategy Group for Fight for Nebraska PACD-sponsored | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 600 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 | R+3.8 |
| Tavern ResearchD-sponsored | May 16–May 19 | 1,079 LV | 33 | 41 | R+8 | R+7.9 |
| Tavern ResearchD-sponsored | May 16–May 19 | 1,079 LV | 43 | 45 | R+2 | R+7.9 |
| Zenith ResearchD-sponsored | May 8–May 11 | 371 LV | 38 | 45 | R+7 | R+10.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 3, 2026.
The district
Lean R+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 663,419
- People per km²
- 42
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 77%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 3%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
312,057 votes · R+20.2✓ Mike Flood (R)60.1%
Carol Blood (D)39.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
313,520 two-party votes · R+13.2 · R+11.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.6%
Kamala Harris (D)43.4%
2022
223,165 votes · R+15.8✓ Mike Flood (R)57.9%
Patty Pansing Brooks (D)42.1%
2022 specialEarlier district lines
115,800 votes · R+5.4✓ Flood, Mike (R)52.7%
Brooks, Patty Pansing (D)47.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
317,566 votes · R+22.5✓ Jeff Fortenberry (R)59.5%
Kate Bolz (D)37.7%
Dennis B Grace (L)2.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
307,460 two-party votes · R+11.2 · R+15.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.6%
Joe Biden (D)44.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
234,781 votes · R+20.7✓ Jeff Fortenberry (R)60.4%
Jessica McClure (D)39.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
252,596 two-party votes · R+19.5 · R+21.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.3%