Democratic
Mike Croley
Former park ranger
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $103.8K
- From individuals
- $97.7K
- Spent
- $81.1K
- Cash on hand
- $22.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Tennessee › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Tennessee's 6th District
Garrett is very likely to win: Garrett wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Croley (D)
1%
chance of winning
Garrett (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+17.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+9
- Partisan lean
- R+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Garrett is very likely to win: Garrett wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Croley (D)
3%
chance of winning
Garrett (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+18.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+30 to R+7
- Partisan lean
- R+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Johnny Garrett
State representative from the 45th district (2019–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $2.4M
- From individuals
- $1.1M
- Spent
- $2.1M
- Cash on hand
- $287.6K
Money: FEC, through Jul 17, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.15 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+26: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 794,027
- People per km²
- 53
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 76%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 10%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
331,687 votes · R+36.0✓ John W. Rose (R)68.0%
Lore Bergman (D)32.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
359,915 two-party votes · R+27.2 · R+25.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.6%
Kamala Harris (D)36.4%
2022 Earlier district lines
195,063 votes · R+32.7✓ John W Rose (R)66.3%
Randal Cooper (D)33.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
349,578 votes · R+50.9✓ John W Rose (R)73.7%
Christopher Martin Finley (D)24.0%
Christopher B Monday (I)2.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
346,254 two-party votes · R+21.1 · R+25.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.5%
Joe Biden (D)39.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
248,740 votes · R+42.1✓ John Rose (R)69.5%
Dawn Barlow (D)28.3%
David Ross (I)1.4%
Lloyd Dunn (I)0.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
284,490 votes · R+53.1✓ Diane Black (R)71.1%
David W Kent (D)21.8%
David Ross (I)7.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
265,775 two-party votes · R+25.0 · R+27.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.5%