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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 27th District
Salazar is favored to win: Salazar wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Rodriguez (D)
23%
chance of winning
Salazar (R)
77%
- Average margin
- R+5.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- 3in our database
Salazar is favored to win: Salazar wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Rodriguez (D)
29%
chance of winning
Salazar (R)
71%
- Average margin
- R+4.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- 3in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Eliott Rodriguez
Television journalist
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $661.2K
- From individuals
- $654.2K
- Spent
- $336.1K
- Cash on hand
- $325.1K
Money: FEC, through Jul 29, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
María Elvira Salazar
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.4M
- From individuals
- $626.4K
- Spent
- $1.8M
- Cash on hand
- $2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.83 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Rodriguez | Salazar | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Sep 8–Sep 13 | 600 LV | 46 | 47 | R+1 | R+7.0 |
| Bendixen & Amandi International for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which supports RodriguezD-sponsored | Aug 25–Aug 30 | 600 LV | 45 | 45 | Even | R+4.0 |
| Blueprint PollingD-sponsored | Mar 6–Mar 8 | 451 RV | 43 | 46 | R+3 | R+4.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 13, 2026.
The district
Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 766,838
- People per km²
- 1,060
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 44%
- White, no degree
- 5%of adults
- White 17%
- Hispanic 74%
- Black 5%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
329,867 votes · R+20.8✓ Maria Elvira Salazar (R)60.4%
Lucia Baez-Geller (D)39.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
332,462 two-party votes · R+14.9 · R+13.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.5%
Kamala Harris (D)42.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
237,442 votes · R+14.6✓ Maria Elvira Salazar (R)57.3%
Annette Taddeo (D)42.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
343,356 votes · R+2.7✓ Maria Elvira Salazar (R)51.3%
Donna E Shalala (D)48.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
365,748 two-party votes · R+0.3 · R+4.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.1%
Joe Biden (D)49.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
252,586 votes · D+6.2✓ Donna Shalala (D)51.8%
Maria Elvira Salazar (R)45.8%
Mayra Joli (I)2.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
287,677 votes · R+9.8✓ Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)54.9%
Scott Fuhrman (D)45.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
302,170 two-party votes · D+17.8 · D+15.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)58.9%
Donald Trump (R)41.1%