Democratic
Mitchell Berman
Nurse
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.6M
- From individuals
- $1.5M
- Spent
- $1.3M
- Cash on hand
- $338.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Wisconsin › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wisconsin's 1st District
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (49% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Berman (D)
49%
chance of winning
Steil (R)
51%
- Average margin
- R+0.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- 4in our database
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (47% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Berman (D)
47%
chance of winning
Steil (R)
53%
- Average margin
- R+0.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- 4in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Bryan Steil
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $6.3M
- From individuals
- $1.7M
- Spent
- $4.3M
- Cash on hand
- $4.2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.25 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.88 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.88 |
Polls
All 4 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Berman | Steil | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Sep 28–Oct 1 | 500 LV | 48 | 47 | D+1 | R+4.4 |
| DCCC Analytics Department | Sep 21–Sep 23 | 495 LV | 48 | 48 | Even | R+0.3 |
| Impact Research for Berman's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 6–Aug 9 | 400 LV | 48 | 49 | R+1 | R+5.6 |
| Ragnar Research Partners for Conservatives For America, an organization linked to the Republican Study CommitteeR-sponsored | Mar 14–Mar 16 | 400 LV | 41 | 50 | R+9 | Even |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 1, 2026.
The district
Lean R+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 719,227
- People per km²
- 91
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 53%of adults
- White 74%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 6%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
393,493 votes · R+10.4✓ Bryan Steil (R)54.0%
Peter Barca (D)43.8%
Chester Todd, Jr. (G)2.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
397,248 two-party votes · R+4.6 · R+3.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.3%
Kamala Harris (D)47.7%
2022
300,682 votes · R+9.0✓ Bryan Steil (R)54.1%
Ann Roe (D)45.2%
Charles E Barman (OTH)0.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
401,754 votes · R+18.7✓ Bryan Steil (R)59.3%
Roger Polack (D)40.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
390,897 two-party votes · R+2.2 · R+6.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.1%
Joe Biden (D)48.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
325,013 votes · R+12.7✓ Bryan Steil (R)54.6%
Randy Bryce (D)42.3%
Ken Yorgan (I)3.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
353,990 votes · R+36.5✓ Paul D Ryan (R)65.0%
Ryan Solen (D)30.2%
Spencer Zimmerman (OTH)2.7%
Jason Lebeck (L)2.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
328,627 two-party votes · R+2.8 · R+5.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.6%