Staggered terms in both chambers
Senators and representatives serve four-year terms. Each election covers about half the districts (the odd-numbered ones in 2026), with the senator and both representatives elected together.
North Dakota › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Dakota's at-large District
Fedorchak is very likely to win: Fedorchak wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hammer (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Fedorchak (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+27.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+36 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+37
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Fedorchak is very likely to win: Fedorchak wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hammer (D)
1%
chance of winning
Fedorchak (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+28.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+40 to R+17
- Partisan lean
- R+37
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Trygve Hammer
Teacher and nominee for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $341.3K
- From individuals
- $330.4K
- Spent
- $266.8K
- Cash on hand
- $74.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Julie Fedorchak
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.1M
- From individuals
- $500K
- Spent
- $1.3M
- Cash on hand
- $1.1M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.79 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.27 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.27 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+37: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 784,841
- People per km²
- 4
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 3%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
359,787 votes · R+39.0✓ Julie Fedorchak (R)69.2%
Trygve Hammer (D)30.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
358,665 two-party votes · R+37.4 · R+35.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.7%
Kamala Harris (D)31.3%
2022
238,586 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Kelly Armstrong (R)62.2%
Cara Mund (I)37.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
355,598 votes · R+42.9✓ Kelly Armstrong (R)69.0%
Zach Raknerud (D)27.6%
Steven James Peterson (L)3.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
357,124 two-party votes · R+34.8 · R+39.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.4%
Joe Biden (D)32.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
321,532 votes · R+25.7✓ Kelly Armstrong (R)60.2%
Mac Schneider (D)35.6%
Charles Tuttle (I)4.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
338,459 votes · R+48.9✓ Kevin Cramer (R)69.1%
Chase Iron Eyes (D)23.7%
Jack Seaman (L)7.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
317,390 two-party votes · R+39.9 · R+42.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.1%