Democratic
J. D. Ford
State senator for the 29th district (2018–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $582.1K
- From individuals
- $530.4K
- Spent
- $267.4K
- Cash on hand
- $314.7K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Indiana › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Indiana's 5th District
Spartz is clearly favored to win: Spartz wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Ford (D)
9%
chance of winning
Spartz (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+7.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- 1in our database
Spartz is clearly favored to win: Spartz wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Ford (D)
13%
chance of winning
Spartz (R)
87%
- Average margin
- R+7.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Victoria Spartz
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.1M
- From individuals
- $1.3M
- Spent
- $1.5M
- Cash on hand
- $854.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.66 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.18 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.18 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Ford | Spartz | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research for Ford's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 16–Jul 20 | 400 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 | R+6.5 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jul 20, 2026.
The district
Lean R+17: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 774,629
- People per km²
- 135
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 81%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 5%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
359,207 votes · R+19.6✓ Victoria Spartz (R)56.6%
Deborah A. Pickett (D)38.0%
Robby Slaughter (I)2.7%
Lauri Shillings (L)2.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
362,039 two-party votes · R+17.1 · R+15.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.6%
Kamala Harris (D)41.4%
2022
240,009 votes · R+22.1✓ Victoria Spartz (R)61.1%
Jeannine Lee Lake (D)38.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
416,226 votes · R+4.3✓ Victoria Spartz (R)50.0%
Christina Hale (D)45.9%
Kenneth Tucker (L)4.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
361,438 two-party votes · R+16.2 · R+20.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.1%
Joe Biden (D)41.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
316,884 votes · R+13.5✓ Susan W Brooks (R)56.7%
Dee Thornton (D)43.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
361,135 votes · R+28.4✓ Susan W Brooks (R)61.5%
Angela Demaree (D)34.3%
Matthew Wittlief (L)4.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
348,309 two-party votes · R+23.7 · R+25.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.2%