Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia's 14th District
Fuller is very likely to win: Fuller wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Harris (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Fuller (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+26.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+36 to R+18
- Partisan lean
- R+37
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Fuller is very likely to win: Fuller wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Harris (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Fuller (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+29.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+42 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+37
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Shawn Harris
Cattleman, retired brigadier general, and nominee for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $8.4M
- From individuals
- $8.4M
- Spent
- $8.3M
- Cash on hand
- $56.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Clay Fuller
Incumbent U.S. Representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.1M
- From individuals
- $1.2M
- Spent
- $1.9M
- Cash on hand
- $197.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.36 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 11.1 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+37: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 778,245
- People per km²
- 101
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 53%of adults
- White 69%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 12%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
378,205 votes · R+28.7✓ Marjorie Taylor Greene (R)64.4%
Shawn Harris (D)35.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
383,123 two-party votes · R+37.1 · R+35.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.5%
Kamala Harris (D)31.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
258,351 votes · R+31.7✓ Marjorie Taylor Greene (R)65.9%
Marcus Flowers (D)34.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
307,625 votes · R+49.4✓ Marjorie Taylor Greene (R)74.7%
Kevin van Ausdal (D)25.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
352,231 two-party votes · R+37.9 · R+42.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.9%
Joe Biden (D)31.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
229,724 votes · R+53.0✓ Tom Graves (R)76.5%
Steven Lamar Foster (D)23.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
216,953 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Tom Graves (R)99.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
279,284 two-party votes · R+46.2 · R+48.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)73.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)26.9%