DemocraticIncumbent
Greg Stanton
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.6M
- From individuals
- $1.8M
- Spent
- $1.7M
- Cash on hand
- $1.9M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Arizona › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arizona's 4th District
Stanton is very likely to win: Stanton wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Stanton (D)
99%
chance of winning
Jasser (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+17.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Stanton is very likely to win: Stanton wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Stanton (D)
96%
chance of winning
Jasser (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+16.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Zuhdi Jasser
Physician and candidate for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $732.9K
- From individuals
- $715.2K
- Spent
- $616.8K
- Cash on hand
- $116.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.91 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.25 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.25 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 793,719
- People per km²
- 1,705
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 55%
- Hispanic 27%
- Black 5%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
334,805 votes · D+7.4✓ Greg Stanton (D)52.7%
Kelly Cooper (R)45.4%
Vincent Beck-Jones (G)1.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
342,523 two-party votes · D+6.8 · D+8.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.4%
Donald Trump (R)46.6%
2022
266,146 votes · D+12.2✓ Greg Stanton (D)56.0%
Kelly Cooper (R)43.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
398,486 votes · R+39.5✓ Paul A Gosar (R)69.8%
Delina Disanto (D)30.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
362,041 two-party votes · D+10.7 · D+6.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.3%
Donald Trump (R)44.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
277,230 votes · R+38.2✓ Paul Gosar (R)68.1%
David Brill (D)30.5%
Haryaksha Gregor Knauer (G)1.3%
2016 Earlier district lines
285,433 votes · R+42.9✓ Paul A Gosar (R)71.3%
Mikel Weisser (D)28.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
261,687 two-party votes · D+2.9 · D+0.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.5%
Donald Trump (R)48.5%