Maine › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pingree is very likely to win: Pingree wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Pingree is very likely to win: Pingree wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
In November, voters rank candidates for U.S. Senate and U.S. House; if nobody has a majority, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to each voter's next choice. Governor and legislative races are decided by plurality. The forecast models the final round for Congress.
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
Incumbent U.S. representative (2009–present)
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Defense contractor and nominee for this district in 2024
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.66 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.95 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.95 |
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Pingree | Russell | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 679 LV | 57 | 35 | D+22 | D+24.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 21, 2026.
Lean D+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.