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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 9th District
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (72%).
Green is favored to win: Green wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Soto (D)
28%
chance of winning
Green (R)
72%
- Average margin
- R+3.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- 1in our database
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (79%).
Green is favored to win: Green wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Soto (D)
21%
chance of winning
Green (R)
79%
- Average margin
- R+6.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- 1in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Darren Soto
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3.5M
- From individuals
- $1.4M
- Spent
- $2.1M
- Cash on hand
- $1.3M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Dan Green
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development and Navy reserve officer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $2.2M
- From individuals
- $204.3K
- Spent
- $1.7M
- Cash on hand
- $516.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.51 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Soto | Green | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA Polling for Soto's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 24–Aug 30 | 400 RV | 41 | 41 | Even | R+2.7 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 30, 2026.
The district
Lean R+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 807,633
- People per km²
- 57
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 44%
- Hispanic 41%
- Black 8%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
324,273 votes · D+12.8✓ Darren Soto (D)55.1%
Thomas Chalifoux (R)42.6%
Marcus Carter (I)2.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
370,037 two-party votes · R+18.1 · R+16.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.1%
Kamala Harris (D)40.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
202,368 votes · D+7.3✓ Darren Soto (D)53.6%
Scotty Moore (R)46.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
430,028 votes · D+12.1✓ Darren Soto (D)56.0%
William P "bill" Olson (R)43.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
498,753 two-party votes · R+4.6 · R+9.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.3%
Joe Biden (D)47.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
296,737 votes · D+16.0✓ Darren Soto (D)58.0%
Wayne Liebnitzky (R)42.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
339,761 votes · D+15.0✓ Darren Soto (D)57.5%
Wayne Liebnitzky (R)42.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
380,087 two-party votes · R+1.3 · R+3.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.4%
Also on the ballot in Florida
Neighboring districts
FL-8Jennifer JenkinsMike Haridopolos92%Rep.86%Rep. FL-10Maxwell Frost—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. FL-11James PericolaJoe Strada85%Rep.80%Rep. FL-16Kelly KirschnerSydney Gruters78%Rep.77%Rep. FL-17Matthew MontavonGreg Steube97%Rep.92%Rep. FL-18Curtis GibsonScott Franklin93%Rep.84%Rep. FL-21James MartinBrian Mast93%Rep.83%Rep. FL-22Pia DandiyaCasey Askar51%Dem.54%Rep.