Democratic
Donavan McKinney
State representative from the 11th district (2023–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $1.8M
- From individuals
- $1.6M
- Spent
- $1.7M
- Cash on hand
- $90.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Michigan › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan's 13th District
McKinney is very likely to win: McKinney wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McKinney (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Nykoriak (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+51.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+43 to D+61
- Partisan lean
- D+44
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
McKinney is very likely to win: McKinney wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McKinney (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Nykoriak (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+50.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+39 to D+63
- Partisan lean
- D+44
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
T. P. Nykoriak
International trade analyst and perennial candidate
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.22 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.87 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+44: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 777,928
- People per km²
- 1,187
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 28%of adults
- White 37%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 45%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
321,623 votes · D+47.3✓ Shri Thanedar (D)68.6%
Martell D. Bivings (R)24.5%
Simone R. Coleman (WCP)4.2%
Chris Clark (L)1.8%
Chris Dardzinski (CST)0.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
325,707 two-party votes · D+42.0 · D+43.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)71.0%
Donald Trump (R)29.0%
2022
235,166 votes · D+49.6✓ Shri Thanedar (D)70.9%
Martell D Bivings (R)23.9%
Simone R Coleman (WCP)3.8%
Chris Dardzinski (CST)1.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
285,885 votes · D+61.4✓ Rashida Tlaib (D)78.1%
David Dudenhoefer (R)18.6%
Sam Johnson (WCP)1.8%
D Etta Wilcoxon (G)0.7%
Articia Bomer (CST)0.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
336,592 two-party votes · D+50.2 · D+45.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)75.1%
Donald Trump (R)24.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
391,292 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Brenda Jones (D)43.4%
Rashida Tlaib (D)42.3%
Sam Johnson (WCP)5.7%
Marc Joseph Sosnowski (—)4.4%
D Etta Wilcoxon (G)4.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
257,797 votes · D+66.1✓ John Conyers Jr (D)77.1%
Jeff Gorman (R)15.7%
Tiffany Hayden (L)3.7%
Sam Johnson (WCP)3.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
301,144 two-party votes · D+53.1 · D+50.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)76.6%
Donald Trump (R)23.4%